There are some who maintain that, when Amazon launched their Kindle ebook reader in November of 2007, it had minimal competition. Whilst there may be an element of truth in this, it does seem a little harsh on the Sony PRS reader, which was perfectly fine in its day. The reality is that the Kindle offered users significant added functionality which had not been available prior to its launch. Amazon’s large selection of available Kindle books and wireless connectivity with no monthly fees, were both big selling points.

Amazon released the upgraded Kindle 2 in February of 2009, which featured quicker page turns, increased storage capacity, extended battery life and was slimmer, lighter and better looking than the original Kindle. In June 2009, they followed up with the Kindle DX, which was basically a large display version of the Kindle 2 – which incorporated native pdf file handling capabilities and had an accelerometer to auto rotate the display when the reader was laid on its side.

In the relatively short time since the release of the two latest Kindles, there has been a huge increase in the level of competition in the ebook reader marketplace. Sony has a whole family of new readers on offer and Barnes and Noble have their own ebook reader – the Nook – on the market now. Other manufacturers, such as Microsoft, Apple and Plastic Logic, have readers in development. Many of these have features which outgun the Kindle. If Amazon’s success with the Kindle was ever truly due to lack of competition, then that is certainly no longer the case.

Amazon has certainly responded to the new challengers. The price of the Kindle 2 has dropped by $ 100 to $ 259 since its launch. There have been firmware updates which have increased battery life, extended the duration prior to entering screen saver mode, introduced native pdf handling for the Kindle 2 etc. Audio menus to assist blind users are being introduced and Kindle “Apps” for the iPhone and the PC have been introduced. The Kindle 2 was also launched on the international market, where Amazon will doubtless be hoping to achieve the same 60% market share that it currently enjoys in the USA.

However, most of these changes have been, somewhat uncharacteristically for Amazon, in reaction to the activity of the competition. It seems unlikely that Amazon has run out of ideas for what is now its number one selling product – so when can we expect to see major changes and what might these involve?

One of the most probable new developments on the cards must surely be the introduction of some level of touch screen control. Many of the new readers incorporate this and it does seem to be a feature that users value. Another feature that would almost certainly appeal to many users would be a color display. However, given the current state of the technology, it seems unlikely that this will be made available in the next iteration of the Kindle. If it were, then it would certainly be a major coup for Amazon.

Other changes may be less hardware focused. For example, many of Amazon’s competitors seem to be lining up behind the ePub format for ebooks. Amazon currently use a proprietary which means that Kindle books can only be used on the Kindle reader. The ability to transfer books from one reader to another, possibly of a different make, and even to lend them to family and friends will certainly become a selling point in the future. Further changes and enhancements are guaranteed. Amazon will certainly not allow the Kindle to go the way of Sony’s Betamax video tape or Toshiba’s HD DVD system.

As to the timescale for the release of the Kindle 4, it seems probable that Amazon will want to have a launch sometime in 2010. The market is growing and developing so fast that Amazon simply cannot allow too long a span between upgrades. The Kindle developed into Amazon’s best selling item with astonishing speed. Amazon will simply not allow their competitors to get ahead of them in the ebook reader market.

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